December 7, 1941. The Day Japan Attacked the Panama Canal

Naval Intelligence
October 20, 1941. Naval Intelligence Office, 15th Naval District Headquarters, Balboa, Panama Canal Zone.

“Look at this, will ya?” Lieutenant Commander Dale Cooper called out to his South American analyst, Lieutenant Geraldo Reyes. “Japanese Navy Announces Diplomatic Visit to City. Argentina Interested in Purchasing Japanese Flying Boats For Navy.” He had a copy of the Buenos Aires newspaper La Nación spread on his cluttered desk, and with each line he read the note of disbelief in his voice increased.

Reyes rolled his swivel chair over to Cooper’s desk, wheels squeaking all the way, and squeezed in beside his superior. The two men switched between Spanish and English as they read and then commented on the article. “The Imperial Japanese Navy seaplane tender Chitose will be making a good-will stop, showing the rising sun flag here in Buenos Aires. She is bringing with her three long-range Kawanishi H6K marine patrol aircraft of the latest type. After a public viewing the aircraft will fly south to the Armada de la Rupública base at Puerto Belgrano for evaluation. The government and navy have expressed a desire to be able to better demonstrate security and sovereignty over the coast in light of the European war, especially since the Graf Spee incident of two years ago and the recent actions of German U-boats in nearby waters. The Chitose is said to be making diplomatic stops at other ports of call along her way. Japanese Ambassador Akira Tomii pronounced that ‘The Empire of Japan and The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere extend a hand of peace and brotherhood to all nations on the Pacific Rim, and beyond.”

Cooper smacked his hand down on the page in exasperation. “What the hell is this?” he demanded, rhetorically.

“It’s bullshit,” said Reyes.

“Damn straight,” agreed Cooper. “Where do I even start? Argentina is in line for Lend-Lease equipment. They want PBYs. Why even…”

“Those negotiations are tense,” interjected Reyes. “The Argentine government is concerned that US equipment is tied to political concessions to Washington. They don’t like that. The Argentine population won’t stand for it. It sounds like Yanqui Imperialismo. This might be a bargaining strategy. ‘We don’t need your planes with strings attached. We can get them from our other friends.”

“Hmmm,” Cooper considered the idea. “Maybe. It won’t be a bargaining strategy to drive the price down though. Argentina won’t get equipment cheaper than a Lend-Lease deal.”

“Well,” Reyes replied slowly, “Argentina did sign a reciprocal trade deal with Japan in March of last year. They agreed to buy, what was it now, something like 30 million yen from each other. So, in a sense, they could trade the aircraft for wheat, or a lot of corned beef. Not really free, but you could frame it as getting them for free.”

Cooper tapped his pencil on the desk. “OK, let’s say for a minute that is what Argentina gets from this. What does Japan get?”

“Influence?” tried Reyes. “Poking Uncle Sam in the eye? There is a lot of support for Germany in Argentina. Japan is an ally of Germany, sort of. It does serve their propaganda. If not to bring Argentina on side, then maybe help keep them neutral.”

“I don’t like it at all,” said Cooper. “Not at all.” He paused. “It just doesn’t add up. Like, if you want to show off long range flying boats, why bring them over on the deck of a ship?” He laughed. “Guys, c’mon. We don’t know the exact specs on these… what are they called?”

“Navy reporting name is Mavis,” said Reyes.

“Right, Mavis. We know they can fly from Kure to Truk unrefueled. That is 2100 nautical miles.”

“With ferry tanks?” asked Reyes.

“Dunno,” said Cooper. “Maybe not even.”

“Still not far enough to get all the way across the Pacific. Who would let them refuel? French Polynesia is with DeGaulle.”

“They could refuel from a submarine,” said Cooper. “or a Japanese freighter at some uninhabited atoll. Or the Galapagos. It would make a much better demonstration of the aircraft. Chitose is sure as hell not going through the Canal. Is there more on this?” He looked down at the newspaper again. “La Nación says Chitose is stopping at other ports of call. We need to get the itinerary.”

Cooper and Reyes spent the afternoon reading the South American papers, while the rain fell on the wide tile overhang of their headquarters building. It was the rainy season. They delegated their entire section to join them in scanning the Latin American press. From desks across the room, voices periodically called out.

“Montevideo! His Imperial Majesty’s Ship Chitose will visit our capital January 16th on a mission of peace and friendship.”

“Sao Paulo! The Brazilian navy is happy to host a visiting ship from the navy of Japan, open for public viewing on January 29th and 30th, 1942.”

“Valparaiso. The Japanese naval vessel Chitose will be open for public viewing of her state-of-the-art naval technology, including three of the newest long range seaplanes, the Kawanishi H6K. The ship will be able to be seen by Altamirano boulevard, alongside our navy decorated for the Christmas holidays.”

“Valparaiso,” said Cooper, and he looked at the big map of the hemisphere hanging on the office wall. “2500 nautical miles from here. Chitose will have to violate the 300 mile Neutrality Zone if she wants to go to Chile.”

“Well, she will have to do that to go to Argentina as well,” pointed out Reyes. “Other than China, Japan is not technically at war with anyone, and is therefore a Neutral too. Technically.”

“Not at war yet,” said Cooper. “At least, last thing I heard. 2500 Miles from here to Valparaiso. Is that in range of those flying boats?”

“Maybe one way,” said Reyes. The men stopped and thought.

“And why go to Chile?” asked Cooper, now on another track.

“Simple answer?” said Reyes. “They have to refuel somewhere. It is 8000 nautical miles from Truk to Valparaiso. That ship can’t reach Buenos Aires in one leg. Not unless they bring their own tanker along. You want a more complicated answer? How about playing both sides against the middle? Testing America’s resolve? Rattling our cage? More of their propaganda game.”

“Chile and Argentina are not exactly friends right now,” said Cooper. “Or ever, for that matter. Could Chile refuse to let Chitose into port?”

“They could,” said Reyes. “But I don’t think they will. Chile and Argentina are rivals, but they have been on much worse terms than they are now. They have a lot of common cause right now, actually. Both making a fortune off the war economy. Both are riddled with German and Japanese agents, and openly hostile to the US. And this visit is announced, so presumably it has already been agreed to by the Chilean government. I could make some calls.”

“I don’t like it,” said Cooper again. “We have cruisers on Neutrality Patrol right?”

“USS Richmond is off Peru.” said Reyes “USS Trenton, I’d have to look up, but she is in the neighborhood. They could intercept and shadow Chitose as she approaches Chile. The Neutrality Zone extends 300 miles west of the Juan Fernandez Islands, so 800 miles off the coast.”

“Yeah,” said Cooper. “This needs to be passed up the chain of command. We need to keep an eye on this. I’m drafting a report to Washington and CINCPAC.”

Periodically the Office of Naval Intelligence received updates on Chitose’s position.

November 16

A US Navy PBY-3 of VP-21 operating from Johnston Atoll was at the extreme end of its patrol pattern when it spotted Chitose 150 nautical miles north of Howland Island, in the British Phoenix Island Group. The carrier was observed to have three Mavis flying boats on its after deck.

November 18

The Norwegian America Line freighter Kristianiafjord, 15 days out from Brisbane on her way to San Francisco with a load of wool, frozen lamb, and general cargo, spotted Chitose headed east. Kristianiafjord reported to her head office that the Japanese ship looked to have a number of large sea planes on deck. This information was passed on to the ONI through channels.

November 19

The British flagged Pacific Steam Navigation Company freight liner Losada, headed from Honolulu to Suva carrying farm machinery, Portland cement, and passengers spotted Chitose just at sunset, and recognized her by her distinctive silhouette.

November 20

The American Matson Line freighter Mahimahi headed to Honolulu from Pago Pago carrying copra, rubber, and cocoa beans, saw Chitose just west of Jarvis Island, in the British Gilbert Islands. Her captain remarked on the appearance of three flying boats on her after deck, emblazoned with Japanese military rondels.

November 21

CINCPAC had ordered the Portland class heavy cruiser USS Indianapolis to leave from Pearl Harbour, locate Chitose, and shadow her. Indianapolis followed the position reports from the Navy PBY and civilian merchants, and on Nov 21 an SOC-1 Seagull float plane from Indianapolis spotted Chitose 400 nautical miles east of Jarvis Island, and 900 nautical miles north west of the Marquesas. The US Navy cruiser sighted Chitose at dawn the next morning. Indianapolis shadowed Chitose for two days, until she received new orders.

“That’s funny,” commented Reyes. “Why would Indianapolis go to all the trouble of finding a needle in a haystack, and then traipse off somewhere else?”

“I think CINCPAC and the Department of the Navy are working at cross purposes," replied Cooper. "President Roosevelt issued a presidential order that no aggressive action be taken against Japanese forces. If we do get in a war, he wants Japan to fire the first shot. Apparently, The Japanese legation complained that the US Navy was interfering with Chitose’s peaceful commercial venture.”

“Complained?” replied Reyes, in disbelief.

November 23

Indianapolis left and turned back northwest to meet with the destroyer minesweepers of MineDiv 5 and 6. Together they formed Task Force 3, and on and around December 7 conducted a shore bombardment and amphibious landing exercise at Johnson Atoll, testing the new Higgins boat landing craft.
Japanese seaplane carrier Chitose.jpg

WWII-Japanese-Flying-Boat-Kawanishi-H6K-Mavis-1600x997.jpg

 
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This timeline was inspired by this thread, which was in turn inspired by this thread, a decade old discussion on another site. I found the proposed scenario to be compelling and a real stretch on all of the military forces involved. I seem to be attracted to alt history scenarios where both sides can be seen to be underdogs, depending on one’s perspective.

This is not an invitation for a discussion on the field of all possibilities for Japanese attacks on the Panama Canal. Most of the vectors of attack in 1941 are simply not going to work. I will describe the defences in place at the time of this story in upcoming chapters.

Thank you to @rascal1225, @jlckansas, @CaptainCalvert, @CV(N)-6, @Viper91, @RanulfC and many others for the discussion, that piqued my interest and honed my understanding of the factors at play.

I have a point form description of the Japanese mission plan below, if one wants to dissect it, but all of the information will also be revealed in the narrative.

Operation Hakeru Starting Conditions
In this formulation, I am treating the scenario proposed in the Axis History Forum, as the work of “The Planners,” an enthusiastic group of hypothetical IJN officers who are 100% advocates of this Operation. My objections and changes to the scenario are made by “Staff,” a more sober group of higher ranking hypothetical IJN officers who have to balance the needs of this Operation with the Pearl Harbour operation, the Southern Drive, and all of the other naval action at the start of the war.

May 1941: Plan for attack on Panama Canal Spillway, Operation Hakeru, finalized to coincide with Pearl Harbour attack.

Seaplane Carrier
Sept- Oct 1941: HIJMS Chitose is selected for the Operation. Chitose is fitted with auxiliary fuel oil tanks with 300 tons capacity, in addition to her as-built 1000 ton fuel capacity, to extend her range to reach from the Japanese Marianas to the Galapagos Islands return without refueling. Her stern crane is replaced with a larger crane capable of lifting an H6K flying boat. Her normal air group of 25 Mitsubishi F1M float planes is reduced to 12 to free up space.

The actual mission is disguised by a false story of Japan exporting flying boats to Argentina, a story which is widely circulated by Japanese agents in Latin American newspapers to throw American and Allied intelligence services off the scent.

Chitose Itinerary.
Nov 3: Leave Kure Naval Yard with torpedoes loaded. Steam at high speed/20 knots to Truk 2093 Nautical Miles =105 hours
Nov 8: Refuel at Truk
Nov 9: Leave Truk. Steam at high speed/20 knots to Jaluit 956 NM = 49 hours
Nov 11: Fuel at Jaluit, embark H6K flying boats, meet with submarines.
Nov 12: Leave Jaluit. Steam at most economical cruising speed/10 knots 5,974 NM = 597 hours (25 days)
Dec 6: Arrive at Galapagos.

Aircraft
The plan calls for 3 Kawanishi H6K/ Type 97 large flying boats to infiltrate the Canal Zone by disguising themselves in false colours of Pan American Airlines Sikorsky S-42 clippers. 3 x H6K4 flying boats are allotted to the mission. These aircraft are the most common military patrol bomber version, which are equipped with standard weapon hardpoints, torpedo dropping equipment and sights. These aircraft and crews continue with their regular duties until the operation is launched, but undergo extra torpedo drop training. The H6Ks will fly on their own to Jaluit, refueling along the way, and there be loaded aboard Chitose. The H6Ks will be painted dull grey, or bare faded aluminum, I'm not sure which was standard, with their national insignias showing, for now.

Rationale: The Planners called for the rarer transport version so as to better resemble the Sikorsky S-42 Pan Am Clippers that the H6Ks were attempting to impersonate. The H6K4 version was the first to have a larger fuel capacity giving it the extended range the mission required. Staff noted that few H6K4-L transport versions were available at the time, and would need to be retrofitted to drop torpedoes. It was decided to keep the aircraft’s machine gun armament in case they had to fight their way in on the final approach run. The resulting small loss of resemblance to the S-42 would in any case only be detected at close range.

Torpedoes
6 x Type 91 modification 2 torpedoes are loaded into Chitose’s magazines. Chitose’s normal F1M air group was not able to drop torpedoes. Chitose carries 60 kg bombs for her floatplanes, and takes on some 250 kg bombs for the H6Ks to drop in case of a last minute change of plans. Type 91 Modification 2 torpedoes with the shallow diving feature were quite rare, and were not available until early November. Chitose will have to load them in Japan at Kure Naval Arsenal, then steam at high speed to Truk, refuel, steam again at high speed to Jaluit, load the H6Ks, and then steam to the Galapagos at most efficient cruising speed.

Submarine Support
Two submarines are allotted to the mission, these are type J1 and J1 modified cruiser submarines I-2 and I-5. The roles of the submarines are escort and reconnaissance, with one breaking off to transmit false positions for Chitose’s false mission, with the other to scout ahead to make sure the Galapagos anchorage is safe, and to act as a plane guard to recover any surviving aircrews. A secondary mission would be commerce warfare against Allied shipping in the Pacific off the Canal once the Operation was complete and war was underway. The submarines, with a maximum surfaced speed of 18 knots, will make their own way to Jaluit. One submarine, let’s say I-5 would begin to impersonate Chitose's radio operations from Jaluit onward,

Rationale: The Planners had asked for 3 type B1 submarines but Staff decided these were more in demand for the Pearl Harbour operation. The J1 type’s 24,000 NM range allowed them to travel to and from Panama without refueling, as no tanker would be following the group, and Chitose was unable to spare fuel for the submarines. When the Operation was done the submarines could be detached to linger and hunt merchant ships, or patrol off San Diego naval yard. The original plan called for submarines with the capacity to launch float planes, but at no point did the Planners give these aircraft a particular role, so were deemed by Staff to be unnecessary to the Operation.

Tanker support.
The Taiyo Kaiun K.K. Tanker Nissho Maru is chartered by the Japanese Navy and sent to Jaluit in the Japanese Marianas mandate to refuel Chitose and associated submarines. This 10,500 GRT tanker was not occupied at the time, could carry 11,000 tons of oil, and was capable of 15 knots. The tanker will make its own way to Jaluit.

Rationale: Planners asked for a fast tanker to accompany the false mission to Argentina, and actually go to the Galapagos to refuel Chitose and the submarines. Staff rejected this plan, since the fast (19.5 knot) tankers were all needed for the Pearl Harbour operation. Also, Staff were concerned that the tanker would almost certainly be lost if sent to the Galapagos, and did not consider the loss to be worth it. No tanker had Chitose’s dash speed of 28 knots, to get out of trouble. This potential loss was even more likely with a slower tanker, such was available, so staff dictated that the tanker go no further east than Japanese Marianas mandate waters. Chitose’s auxiliary fuel tanks were installed to compensate.


Discussion of this particular scenario started on page 7 of this thread, part way down.
 
I wonder how Latin America will react to that. For starters, they might be unhappy with Japan attacking a Latin American country (Panama), and also, they might be angry that the Japanese used several countries (Argentina primarily, but also Chile, Uruguay and Brazil) in their ploy.

It might cause many South American countries to declare war immediately after Pearl Harbor, when they did only in '42 (Brazil), '43 (Colombia), or at the last minute in '45 (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Peru). And also, South American countries other than Brazil might decide to send an expeditionary force, and this force might be sent against Japan instead of Germany.
 
It is a very interesting premise and one with significant follow on effects depending upon the damage to the Lochs etc.
 
Climb Mount Niitaka
December 3, 1941. Seaplane carrier HIJMS Chitose, 3 days west of the Galapagos Islands.

Climb Mount Niitaka, read the decrypted radio message.

Hikō-Kaigun-Chūsa (Flight Lieutenant-Commander) Hiro Takeda climbed the companionway up to Chitose’s deck. “We have arrived at the starting line,” he said to himself, evoking his track-and-field star status from his Naval Academy days. “Now we await the starter’s pistol.” Truly, until now, he did not believe that this mission would take place. It seemed like it had been conceived of by a fairy tale writer. He had only opened his sealed envelope of orders after Chitose had left Jaluit Atoll in the Mariana mandate territory, and when he read the mission abstract he laughed out loud. “Attack the Panama Canal!” he had said, mind reeling. “Attack the Panama Canal.”

An albatross soared overhead, its long wings absolutely still as it floated on the air currents. The albatross was the perfect animal familiar to his own aircraft. He turned to look behind him. His three giant Kawanishi H6K4 flying boats looked as ungainly sitting on Chitose’s aft aircraft handling deck as an albatross looked on land. Each plane’s 40 metre long wingspan projected well past the ship’s rail on both sides. The aircraft were clustered tightly together one to the other, wings pointing every which way in a confusing geometric puzzle, the only way the huge planes could fit on the deck.

He reflected back on events that had brought him to this moment.

Takeda was familiar with the seaplane carrier Chitose. The vessel had supported his unit, the Yokohama Air Group, as they established the seaplane base at Dublon Island in Truk Lagoon in December 1939. His aircraft had been there ever since, patrolling Japanese South Sea Mandate territory, and preforming reconnaissance on their British, Dutch, and American colonial neighbours. In October, he had been ordered to engage in extra torpedo attack training, and the flying boats had performed a rigorous program of torpedo runs and practice drops in the spacious waters of Truk lagoon. Like many of the atolls in the Pacific, Truk lagoon was so wide that the most distant of the reef islands disappeared over the horizon, and could only be seen all at once from the air.

Chitose had steamed into Truk lagoon four weeks ago, on November 8th, and immediately began to refuel. Takeda noticed that the seaplane carrier had been modified since he had last seen her, and now sported a much larger aircraft crane over her stern. He was summoned by his group commander and was surprised to learn he was going to take three of his aircraft to Argentina for trials by the Argentine Navy for prospective export sale. This would necessitate loading the big flying boats onto the seaplane carrier, to cross the wide Pacific. Takeda leafed through his written orders for the Argentina mission, but found the part after he reached South America to be uncharacteristically vague and lacking in detail.

Takeda had been ordered to fly the group’s six newest planes east to Jaluit, capitol of the Japanese Marshal Islands. Three were to load onto Chitose, and the three others were as spares, should some suffer mechanical difficulty on the way. The carrier steamed away the next day. November 10th Takeda flew his six plane half-squadron to Emiej seaplane base in Jaluit lagoon. When he landed, Chitose was just arriving herself. The carrier steamed across the lagoon to the capitol of the administrative and population center on Jabor Island, 8 nautical miles away, where she met up with the civilian tanker Tanker Nissho Maru of the Taiyo Kaiun K.K. Line to refuel. Takeda could not help noticing two submarines were also present, of the large cruiser type. Through his binoculars he read the numbers painted on their conning towers, I-2 and I-5. As it turned out, all six of Takeda’s planes arrived in perfect running order.

When the three planes were being lifted aboard Chitose he had at first fretted and hollered orders at the crane operator, trying to get him to take more care. Eventually, Takeda gave up and covered his eyes. But his planes survived the loading. Once in place he had returned to order the lashing securing them to the deck to be doubled and doubled again.

After Chitose sailed, Takeda opened his sealed orders. Now he learned that the Argentina mission was a ruse, and his actual mission was an attack on the Panama Canal, and war. He found ample time to discuss the mission with Chitose’s captain. The public face of this mission called for Chitose to steam to her ostensible first landfall in the Americas at Valparaiso without refueling. The actual mission was to use the Galapagos Islands as the jumping off point. He learned that in order to make the 12,000 nautical mile return trip to the Galapagos Islands, Chitose had undergone extensive modification. Three extra fuel tanks with 100 ton capacity had been fitted in her holds, extending the carrier’s range from 11,000 to 14,000 nautical miles. Even so, to achieve this range and still maintain some reserve fuel the ship had to steam almost the entire distance at her most economical cruising speed of 10 knots. This meant the ocean crossing from the Marshall Islands to the Galapagos would take 25 days each way. To make space for the extra fuel tanks and Takeda’s flying boats, Chitose landed half of her air group of float planes, and she now carried 12 Mitsubishi F1M floatplanes, rather than her allotted 25.

The two submarines he had seen in Jaluit lagoon were travelling in company with Chitose, and Takeda occasionally saw them in the distance. From time to time on the first half of the crossing from Jaluit, Chitose had encountered British, Allied, and American merchant ships, and once an American naval flying boat. The submarines submerged when any of these encounters happened. Takeda was sure the merchants would report Chitose’s position to the American Navy, and spoil the surprise. “That is the genius of our orders,” Chitose’s captain assured him. “The Americans have been told where we will be, and here we are. We are forcing them to put their guard down.”

The captain was not so flippant several days later, when a US Navy shipborne float plane appeared in the middle of the wide Pacific, followed the next morning by a heavy cruiser rising up over the horizon. “What do our orders say to do in this eventuality?” asked Takeda. The captain was alarmed, but continued on his course. What else could he do? He had to husband his fuel, and in any case the American cruiser was five knots faster. The cruiser, which the captain identified as being of the Portland class, matched Chitose’s course, staying just within visual distance. It ignored attempts at greeting from Chitose, by wireless and morse light. Two days later the American disappeared as mysteriously as it had appeared. The very next day, the cruiser submarine I-5 approached on the surface, and the crews of the two Imperial Japanese Navy ships exchanged salutes across the waves.

The vessels slowed. Chitose lowered a motor launch, and one of the carrier’s crew members was delivered to the submarine.

“Up until this moment,” Chitose’s captain told Takeda, “we have been faithfully transmitting our position back the fleet headquarters. We have been steaming in a more southerly direction than our actual destination. Today we undertake radio silence and alter our course back northwards towards our actual goal. The I-5 will continue on course for Valparaiso Chile, transmitting our call sign and position daily, as if she is us. The Americans will never know the difference. We have even placed my vessel’s wireless telegraph operator onboard the submarine, so that if the Americans are listening, they will hear the familiar fist of our operator in the morse.” He smiled and crossed his arms, expressing satisfaction to Takeda that the plan was unfolding perfectly.

Jaluit_Atoll_map_Kraemer1896_204.jpg


CDN media

 
I have a question, if anyone here knows this kind of thing. Should Chitose get into a scrap with somebody, the seaplnae carrier is armed with only AA Guns. How would these work in a surface role? Looking at Navweapons I see that the Japanese Type 89 12.7 cm gun is only issued Common Type 0 HE shells and maybe some goofy sankaiden incendiary shells. Escorts got another type of semi-armour piecing shell for ASW work, but a seaplane carrier would not be issued those. The Common Type 0 HE used timed AA fuses. Would there be regular impact fuses as well? If not, how would timed AA fuses be used against a surface target? If they were set to maximum range, would they just work like an impact fuse? Also, the maximum the timed fuse can be set for is 55 seconds, but the flight time of a shell at 45degrees can be up to 62 or 63 seconds, reaching out to about 15,500yards . Would the shells inevitably explode before reaching maximum range?

WNJAP_5-40_t89_trajectory_pic.jpg (309.37KiB)
 
The submarines submerging and not getting spotted by anybody is already stretching credibility. Aside from being much slower submerged, extended periods submerged tend to burn fuel at a much faster rate.

The ability to submerge every single time a ship or plane is near would be doable to an extent, but again, over an extended period it also raises the chances that eventually someone is going to notice something. The submarines could never have stayed submerged the entire time USS Indianapolis was shadowing them. The submarines would have burned too much fuel, and they would have needed to return to the surface for air at some point that couldn't be avoided. They could have course slowed down at not ran at their fastest submerged depth, but even at a lazy 10 knots, over a couple of days Chitose would easily have put a couple hundred miles distance between herself and the subs.

The fact that there are two submarines also raises complications that one of them could easily spot a ship or aircraft in time to dive, while the other might not be able to do so. Once or twice both avoiding detection is doable, but multiple times over an extended period, again it's hardly ASB, but it stretches credibility.
 
The submarines submerging and not getting spotted by anybody is already stretching credibility. Aside from being much slower submerged, extended periods submerged tend to burn fuel at a much faster rate.

The ability to submerge every single time a ship or plane is near would be doable to an extent, but again, over an extended period it also raises the chances that eventually someone is going to notice something. The submarines could never have stayed submerged the entire time USS Indianapolis was shadowing them. The submarines would have burned too much fuel, and they would have needed to return to the surface for air at some point that couldn't be avoided. They could have course slowed down at not ran at their fastest submerged depth, but even at a lazy 10 knots, over a couple of days Chitose would easily have put a couple hundred miles distance between herself and the subs.

The fact that there are two submarines also raises complications that one of them could easily spot a ship or aircraft in time to dive, while the other might not be able to do so. Once or twice both avoiding detection is doable, but multiple times over an extended period, again it's hardly ASB, but it stretches credibility.
These are also big subs with really slow diving times, there's a decent chance they would have been spotted by a plane before/while submerging.
 

Sekhmet_D

Kicked
Truly, until now, he did not believe that this mission would take place. It seemed like it had been conceived of by a fairy tale writer. He had only opened his sealed envelope of orders after Chitose had left Jaluit Atoll in the Mariana mandate territory, and when he read the mission abstract he laughed out loud. “Attack the Panama Canal!” he had said, mind reeling. “Attack the Panama Canal.”
I'm guessing Kameto Kuroshima had a hand in this.
 

rascal1225

Banned
This timeline was inspired by this thread, which was in turn inspired by this thread, a decade old discussion on another site. I found the proposed scenario to be compelling and a real stretch on all of the military forces involved. I seem to be attracted to alt history scenarios where both sides can be seen to be underdogs, depending on one’s perspective.

This is not an invitation for a discussion on the field of all possibilities for Japanese attacks on the Panama Canal. Most of the vectors of attack in 1941 are simply not going to work. I will describe the defences in place at the time of this story in upcoming chapters.

Thank you to @rascal1225, @jlckansas, @CaptainCalvert, @CV(N)-6, @Viper91, @RanulfC and many others for the discussion, that piqued my interest and honed my understanding of the factors at play.

I have a point form description of the Japanese mission plan below, if one wants to dissect it, but all of the information will also be revealed in the narrative.

Operation Hakeru Starting Conditions
In this formulation, I am treating the scenario proposed in the Axis History Forum, as the work of “The Planners,” an enthusiastic group of hypothetical IJN officers who are 100% advocates of this Operation. My objections and changes to the scenario are made by “Staff,” a more sober group of higher ranking hypothetical IJN officers who have to balance the needs of this Operation with the Pearl Harbour operation, the Southern Drive, and all of the other naval action at the start of the war.

May 1941: Plan for attack on Panama Canal Spillway, Operation Hakeru, finalized to coincide with Pearl Harbour attack.

Seaplane Carrier
Sept- Oct 1941: HIJMS Chitose is selected for the Operation. Chitose is fitted with auxiliary fuel oil tanks with 300 tons capacity, in addition to her as-built 1000 ton fuel capacity, to extend her range to reach from the Japanese Marianas to the Galapagos Islands return without refueling. Her stern crane is replaced with a larger crane capable of lifting an H6K flying boat. Her normal air group of 25 Mitsubishi F1M float planes is reduced to 12 to free up space.

The actual mission is disguised by a false story of Japan exporting flying boats to Argentina, a story which is widely circulated by Japanese agents in Latin American newspapers to throw American and Allied intelligence services off the scent.

Chitose Itinerary.
Nov 3: Leave Kure Naval Yard with torpedoes loaded. Steam at high speed/20 knots to Truk 2093 Nautical Miles =105 hours
Nov 8: Refuel at Truk
Nov 9: Leave Truk. Steam at high speed/20 knots to Jaluit 956 NM = 49 hours
Nov 11: Fuel at Jaluit, embark H6K flying boats, meet with submarines.
Nov 12: Leave Jaluit. Steam at most economical cruising speed/10 knots 5,974 NM = 597 hours (25 days)
Dec 6: Arrive at Galapagos.

Aircraft
The plan calls for 3 Kawanishi H6K/ Type 97 large flying boats to infiltrate the Canal Zone by disguising themselves in false colours of Pan American Airlines Sikorsky S-42 clippers. 3 x H6K4 flying boats are allotted to the mission. These aircraft are the most common military patrol bomber version, which are equipped with standard weapon hardpoints, torpedo dropping equipment and sights. These aircraft and crews continue with their regular duties until the operation is launched, but undergo extra torpedo drop training. The H6Ks will fly on their own to Jaluit, refueling along the way, and there be loaded aboard Chitose. The H6Ks will be painted dull grey, or bare faded aluminum, I'm not sure which was standard, with their national insignias showing, for now.

Rationale: The Planners called for the rarer transport version so as to better resemble the Sikorsky S-42 Pan Am Clippers that the H6Ks were attempting to impersonate. The H6K4 version was the first to have a larger fuel capacity giving it the extended range the mission required. Staff noted that few H6K4-L transport versions were available at the time, and would need to be retrofitted to drop torpedoes. It was decided to keep the aircraft’s machine gun armament in case they had to fight their way in on the final approach run. The resulting small loss of resemblance to the S-42 would in any case only be detected at close range.

Torpedoes
6 x Type 91 modification 2 torpedoes are loaded into Chitose’s magazines. Chitose’s normal F1M air group was not able to drop torpedoes. Chitose carries 60 kg bombs for her floatplanes, and takes on some 250 kg bombs for the H6Ks to drop in case of a last minute change of plans. Type 91 Modification 2 torpedoes with the shallow diving feature were quite rare, and were not available until early November. Chitose will have to load them in Japan at Kure Naval Arsenal, then steam at high speed to Truk, refuel, steam again at high speed to Jaluit, load the H6Ks, and then steam to the Galapagos at most efficient cruising speed.

Submarine Support
Two submarines are allotted to the mission, these are type J1 and J1 modified cruiser submarines I-2 and I-5. The roles of the submarines are escort and reconnaissance, with one breaking off to transmit false positions for Chitose’s false mission, with the other to scout ahead to make sure the Galapagos anchorage is safe, and to act as a plane guard to recover any surviving aircrews. A secondary mission would be commerce warfare against Allied shipping in the Pacific off the Canal once the Operation was complete and war was underway. The submarines, with a maximum surfaced speed of 18 knots, will make their own way to Jaluit. One submarine, let’s say I-5 would begin to impersonate Chitose's radio operations from Jaluit onward,

Rationale: The Planners had asked for 3 type B1 submarines but Staff decided these were more in demand for the Pearl Harbour operation. The J1 type’s 24,000 NM range allowed them to travel to and from Panama without refueling, as no tanker would be following the group, and Chitose was unable to spare fuel for the submarines. When the Operation was done the submarines could be detached to linger and hunt merchant ships, or patrol off San Diego naval yard. The original plan called for submarines with the capacity to launch float planes, but at no point did the Planners give these aircraft a particular role, so were deemed by Staff to be unnecessary to the Operation.

Tanker support.
The Taiyo Kaiun K.K. Tanker Nissho Maru is chartered by the Japanese Navy and sent to Jaluit in the Japanese Marianas mandate to refuel Chitose and associated submarines. This 10,500 GRT tanker was not occupied at the time, could carry 11,000 tons of oil, and was capable of 15 knots. The tanker will make its own way to Jaluit.

Rationale: Planners asked for a fast tanker to accompany the false mission to Argentina, and actually go to the Galapagos to refuel Chitose and the submarines. Staff rejected this plan, since the fast (19.5 knot) tankers were all needed for the Pearl Harbour operation. Also, Staff were concerned that the tanker would almost certainly be lost if sent to the Galapagos, and did not consider the loss to be worth it. No tanker had Chitose’s dash speed of 28 knots, to get out of trouble. This potential loss was even more likely with a slower tanker, such was available, so staff dictated that the tanker go no further east than Japanese Marianas mandate waters. Chitose’s auxiliary fuel tanks were installed to compensate.


Discussion of this particular scenario started on page 7 of this thread, part way down.

I note that your spoiler section mentions the loading of 250kg bombs aboard Chitose for potential use against the Canal ... why did you not include 6 x 800kg new AP bombs (actually 744 kg or 1,641lbs) for your 3 x H6K Mavis seaplanes ? I know that the numbers of those available was very limited prior to the Pearl Harbor air raids but that flexibility might have been appreciated by the 3 Mavis aircrews as the Panama situation developed ... As built, the Mavis could haul and drop 2 x 848kg type 91 torpedoes, so a pair of only 744kg bombs was certainly possible ...

Also, just wondering what the purpose of sending the USS Indianapolis to shadow Chitose for two days is AFTER she had already been spotted near her broadcast positions by a USN PBY and several merchant vessels ? Seems a waste of USN fuel when she already had an exercise scheduled at Johnston Island and as you pointed out, FDR had already made it quite clear that he wished to offer the Japanese NO Casus Belli excuse to start a Pacific War any sooner than was necessary ... seems like a CEM (career ending move) for whichever USN flag officer ordered the USS Indianapolis out on such a pointless wild goose chase ? The Chitose was clearly transiting international waters at that location and even a "USN Neutrality Patrol" excuse would have held no water since Japan was still a neutral nation at that time in WW2.

Last but not least, a non-cutaway view of a Mavis can be viewed at https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/imgs/lrg/kawanishi-h6k_2.jpg
 
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These are also big subs with really slow diving times, there's a decent chance they would have been spotted by a plane before/while submerging.

The fact that there are two of them makes that a very real possibility. Even if only one is spotted, the fact that Chitose has been announced to be making this mission solo and finding a submarine of all things riding shotgun would definitely get peoples attention. If the ship did have an escort, a regular cruiser or light cruiser would make sense if they wanted an armed escort, or given the distance from Japan an oiler would make sense.

Submarines, not so much, that would automatically set wheels in motion for other assets being activated to monitor the ship, and would be justification in general for various Pacific based commands to raise alert levels.
 
I note that your spoiler section mentions the loading of 250kg bombs aboard Chitose for potential use against the Canal ... why did you not include 6 x 800kg new AP bombs (actually 744 kg or 1,641lbs) for your 3 x H6K Mavis seaplanes ? I know that the numbers of those available was very limited prior to the Pearl Harbor air raids but that flexibility might have been appreciated by the 3 Mavis aircrews as the Panama situation developed ... As built, the Mavis could haul and drop 2 x 848kg type 91 torpedoes, so a pair of only 744kg bombs was certainly possible ...
The 800kg AP bombs used in the attack on Pearl Harbour that caused Arizona to blow up, actually adapted 41 cm naval artillery shells, are unsuitable for this mission for a number of reasons:
1) The 800kg special armour piecing bomb is mostly hard steel base fused with a 15 kg bursting charge. It is really designed to get through a battleship's armour and not much else.
2) The mission profile in which they were used at PH had them dropped by level bombers from 10,000 feet, so that they could achieve terminal velocity, and penetrate the deck armour of the US Standards. Dropped from a lower altitude, they will not have the same effect. Furthermore, in the rainy season in Panama, 10,000 feet is likely to be above the clouds, so they don't get a shot at all.
3) With only 6 possible shots, and the Mavises not being normal bombers with proper bomb sights, the chance of hitting anything is remote.
4) The Japanese don't know it, but flying at 10,000 feet would put them in the perfect position to be detected by American radar. The radar could detect a target at 5000 feet at 50 miles and one at 20,000 feet at 100 miles, so at 10,000 feet I expect the Mavises would be detected at around 75 miles, or more than 20 minutes of flight time.
5) A miracle direct hit from one of these bombs on the target,
the Gatun Lake Dam spillway gates
, would put a caliber sized hole in the target before the bomb disappeared tens of meters into the ground. So very little effect.
6) The entire mission hinges on surprise, as will be explained in later chapters. A high altitude attack negates surprise. A low altitude attack negates the value of the weapon.
7) The mission planners were all-in on the torpedo attack, as will be explained later.
 
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I have a question, if anyone here knows this kind of thing. Should Chitose get into a scrap with somebody, the seaplnae carrier is armed with only AA Guns. How would these work in a surface role? Looking at Navweapons I see that the Japanese Type 89 12.7 cm gun is only issued Common Type 0 HE shells and maybe some goofy sankaiden incendiary shells. Escorts got another type of semi-armour piecing shell for ASW work, but a seaplane carrier would not be issued those. The Common Type 0 HE used timed AA fuses. Would there be regular impact fuses as well? If not, how would timed AA fuses be used against a surface target? If they were set to maximum range, would they just work like an impact fuse? Also, the maximum the timed fuse can be set for is 55 seconds, but the flight time of a shell at 45degrees can be up to 62 or 63 seconds, reaching out to about 15,500yards . Would the shells inevitably explode before reaching maximum range?

WNJAP_5-40_t89_trajectory_pic.jpg (309.37KiB)
If the tender gets into a scrap with anything larger than a gunboat, it IS scrap. At range, a surfaced submarine should be able to sink it from beyond range of its 25 mm's.
Since the ship is likely dead, the best options might be to try to find something worthy, steam into close range, and attack, going down with Bushido. (Or grab a passing merchant ship, seize it, and try to get home that way, as a skeleton crew takes Chitose on a diversionary sacrifice.

The submarines submerging and not getting spotted by anybody is already stretching credibility. Aside from being much slower submerged, extended periods submerged tend to burn fuel at a much faster rate.
Indeed, but a good tale!
Chitose can be far from Panama when the seaplanes hit it, especially if they only use the Mavis flying boats. If the flying boats were planning for a one way mission, then the range would be incredible.
 
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