WI: US blockades Japan
- Thread starter Pappy
- Start date
BobTheBarbarian
Banned
If 'Downfall' was deemed unworkable, the Allies would have just continued blockade and bombardment until the Japanese realized the futility of their position. Projected alternatives to invasion of mainland Japan included taking Korea and the China coast, basically anything to tighten the ring.
Expect twice or thrice the number of both civilian and military casualties had atomic bomb been avoided. Without Operation Overload, there would still have been suicide attacks against the Allies. Bombard would hurt civilians more than anything, and Japan would be ungovernable if Suzuki somehow gets booted way in a prolonged conflict. But in any sense, I don't see Japan surviving past 1946. And even if the US don't intervene, the Soviet Union would.
jahenders
Banned
The invasion that would be avoided was Operation Downfall (with sub-operations Olympic and Coronet).
The US had already effectively blockaded Japan by mid 1945 and could tighten that further.
The US was bombing Japanese cities and other targets since 1944 (42 if you count Doolitle), nearly continuously after May of 1945.
The blockade and bombing WERE having huge effect. Japanese production was low by late summer of 1945, food and medicine were getting scarce, and Japanese air resistance was nearly zero (pun intended).
All that, coupled with a nearly unbroken string of losses, and the Russian entry into the war, would have convinced the Japanese to surrender eventually, but it would likely have taken 3-9 more months and cost 10s of thousands of MORE deaths.
The bottom line is this -- from any/all options of getting Japan to surrender, the use of the atomic bombs was almost certainly the LEAST costly in terms of Japanese lives -- any other option would have resulted in MORE Japanese dead (and some allied dead).
TFSmith121
Banned
Yep.
Yep. The USN and USAAF were quite capable of starving Japan.
Even absent OLYMPIC and/or CORONET.
The USN was running submarine wolfpacks into the Sea of Japan and the Inland Sea; it's not beyond the realm of possibility for surface action and even carrier task groups to have been operating sucessfully as well by the summer of 1946.
There's also the possibility of US troops going ashore for raids and withdrawing sucessfully; Barb's raiders did just that the night of 22–23 July 1945.
Best,
Yep. The USN and USAAF were quite capable of starving Japan.
Even absent OLYMPIC and/or CORONET.
The USN was running submarine wolfpacks into the Sea of Japan and the Inland Sea; it's not beyond the realm of possibility for surface action and even carrier task groups to have been operating sucessfully as well by the summer of 1946.
There's also the possibility of US troops going ashore for raids and withdrawing sucessfully; Barb's raiders did just that the night of 22–23 July 1945.
Best,
Blockade of Japan might be unworkable since the reason the Americans were in a hurry to end the war was due to the Russian entry into the war. If things take too long, Japan will be split in half with the Soviets claiming Northern Japan for themselves.
In OTL they didn't have time to do much, but still managed to nab the Kurils and Southern Sakhalin, the longer it takes the more they'll want.
In OTL they didn't have time to do much, but still managed to nab the Kurils and Southern Sakhalin, the longer it takes the more they'll want.
Lucius Verus
Banned
Well a naval blockade combined with an extended version of operation starvation would've annihilated the Japanese people. Besides the population of Japan being way over Japan's natural carrying capacity the northern regions of japan that serves as a breadbasket has no way of ferrying the produce south. (nor for that matter most of the country, add in spoilage, military requisitions, and American harassment you end up with only enough food for a fraction of Japanese people). Admiral William Frederick Halsey's remark that "the Japanese language would only be spoken in hell." would've come into fruition.
US not concerned about Soviet Invasion of Japan
The US was certainly not concerned with a Soviet invasion of Japan and were not going to speed up their activities based on this possibility. If anything, they were worried that the Soviets would not attack Manchuria as agreed upon.
As US Intelligence determined that more Japanese forces were gathering on Kyushu, a number of alternatives were examined. The US Army was still focused on the invasion approach. The US Navy, especially Admirals King and Halsey, were opposed to the invasion and wanted to continue the close blockade of Japanese ports and continue the strategic bombardment. There was a lot of second-guessing going on in Washington during the first half of August.
If for some reason the atomic bombs were delayed, the US had two options, either attempt some type of negotiated surrender or the blockade and bombardment option. Negotiations were not going to happen since the Japanese opening position was that the Emperor and the ruling government would remain in power. So in essence that left blockade and bombardment, which probably would have totally crippled the Japanese economy by October/November 1945 timeframe.
Regarding a Soviet invasion of Hokkaido, the Soviets only had enough amphibious assets to land two regiments at a time. This was enough to occupy Sakhalin and the Kuriles but even then the fighting was very tough against an opponent that had been told to surrender. It surely wouldn't have been enough to conduct an invasion of Hokkaido. I realize that the Soviets had made plans for an invasion of Hokkaido but that doesn't mean they could pull it off.
As it was, the US wasn't aware of the Soviet plans to invade Hokkaido so it would not have affected their decison-making processes.
The US was certainly not concerned with a Soviet invasion of Japan and were not going to speed up their activities based on this possibility. If anything, they were worried that the Soviets would not attack Manchuria as agreed upon.
As US Intelligence determined that more Japanese forces were gathering on Kyushu, a number of alternatives were examined. The US Army was still focused on the invasion approach. The US Navy, especially Admirals King and Halsey, were opposed to the invasion and wanted to continue the close blockade of Japanese ports and continue the strategic bombardment. There was a lot of second-guessing going on in Washington during the first half of August.
If for some reason the atomic bombs were delayed, the US had two options, either attempt some type of negotiated surrender or the blockade and bombardment option. Negotiations were not going to happen since the Japanese opening position was that the Emperor and the ruling government would remain in power. So in essence that left blockade and bombardment, which probably would have totally crippled the Japanese economy by October/November 1945 timeframe.
Regarding a Soviet invasion of Hokkaido, the Soviets only had enough amphibious assets to land two regiments at a time. This was enough to occupy Sakhalin and the Kuriles but even then the fighting was very tough against an opponent that had been told to surrender. It surely wouldn't have been enough to conduct an invasion of Hokkaido. I realize that the Soviets had made plans for an invasion of Hokkaido but that doesn't mean they could pull it off.
As it was, the US wasn't aware of the Soviet plans to invade Hokkaido so it would not have affected their decison-making processes.
I think there's a considerable possibility that the Japanese surrender whenever the Soviets declare war, even without being hit by atom bombs. Fanatic as they were, Japanese leadership identified a hopeless situation and surrendered OTL. They'll do the same without atom bombs.
jahenders
Banned
I find that hard to credit. They had suffered defeat after defeat, we're trapped on their home isles, had no air force or navy that dared sortie, were at the mercy of US bombardment (which, by mid 45, could hit virtually anywhere, anytime), and food was getting scarce. Yet, they STILL had not surrendered. Even after the first atomic bomb wiped a city from the face of the earth, the council voted AGAINST surrender.
Even after Nagasaki was hit AND the Russians attacked Manchuria on the same day, the council was evenly split on surrender and the emperor had to step in to break the tie.
All that being said, I can't see that the Russian invasion alone would convince them to surrender when nothing previously had. Anyone sane would have concluded it was hopeless LONG before August, but they still would NOT surrender.
There were 3 huge blows in Aug 45:
- Hiroshima nuked
- Nagasaki nuked
- Russian attack
They MIGHT have surrendered with any 2 of those 3, but we can't be sure since they barely even surrendered with all 3.
By August 1945, American naval forces could essentially operate in Japanese territorial waters with near-impunity. The Japanese naval assets (both military and merchant marine) was so wiped out anyway that even the US Navy submarines were running out of ferry boats to hit.
As such, a continued blockade would have brought Japan to surrender anyway. And any Japanese city near a coastline would be highly vulnerable to naval shelling; we would have seen Akita, Niigata, Toyama, Kanazawa, Tsuruga, Tottori, Yonago and Matsue along the Sea of Japan coastline all shelled by naval guns by the late fall of 1945.
As such, a continued blockade would have brought Japan to surrender anyway. And any Japanese city near a coastline would be highly vulnerable to naval shelling; we would have seen Akita, Niigata, Toyama, Kanazawa, Tsuruga, Tottori, Yonago and Matsue along the Sea of Japan coastline all shelled by naval guns by the late fall of 1945.
TFSmith121
Banned
And all their amphibious lift worth mentioning was L-L
And all their amphibious lift worth mentioning was L-L; as it was, the USN's North Pacific task groups in 1945 were stronger than the Soviet Pacific Fleet.
The Soviets weren't going anywhere the US didn't want them to go.
Best,
And all their amphibious lift worth mentioning was L-L; as it was, the USN's North Pacific task groups in 1945 were stronger than the Soviet Pacific Fleet.
The Soviets weren't going anywhere the US didn't want them to go.
Best,
Not this kind of scenario already discussed in CalBear's AngloAmerican-Nazi War?
IIRC Japan's inland sea trade routes was completely blockaded, their towns and cities firebombed, their farms gassed with defoliant, all modern public infrastructure destroyed from air and sea, and all transportation more advance than an ox carts were strafed by fighters. Basically Japan kicked back to Iron Age.
Then massive starvation kick in when winter arrived, with mass civilian death and horror stories like rampart canibalism in some areas. Even then Imperial Government surrendered to the Allies at 1947.
After the war, Japan not even a third world nation, more like "sixteenth" ...
IIRC Japan's inland sea trade routes was completely blockaded, their towns and cities firebombed, their farms gassed with defoliant, all modern public infrastructure destroyed from air and sea, and all transportation more advance than an ox carts were strafed by fighters. Basically Japan kicked back to Iron Age.
Then massive starvation kick in when winter arrived, with mass civilian death and horror stories like rampart canibalism in some areas. Even then Imperial Government surrendered to the Allies at 1947.
After the war, Japan not even a third world nation, more like "sixteenth" ...
redlightning
Banned
The blockade probably would've killed millions more than a series of atomic bombs ever could. There would be more moral outrage over this tactic to end the war than the use of nuclear weapons.
jahenders
Banned
Exactly. Once we reached mid-1945, dropping nukes on Japan was the most moral and humanitarian of the options, even if it was mainly done to save allied men and materiel and end the war faster.
Indeed, if the blockade had continued until Olympic/Downfall then god knows how many Japanese would have died of disease and starvation, before adding the people in their still conqurered territories who would have also been in terrible straights.
ITYM Operation OLYMPIC (and CORONET).
As to the decision. RAdm Dan Gallery (of U-505 fame, then a Captain) was serving as an alternate member of the Logistics Committee of the Joint Chiefs of Staff when the invasion plan came before it. He questioned whether it was necessary to invade Japan. In his words:
However, there was one interesting possible knock-on (which the Allies didn't know about). By this stage in the war, even the most fanatical Japanese militarists had given up hope of winning the war. But they wanted at all costs to avoid Japanese unconditional surrender. That would mean their own apprehension and punishment for war crimes, and also the disbanding of Japan's armed forces and the end of Japan as a Great Power.
Their final fantasy notion of how to avoid this was:
- American troops land in Japan.
- The Japanese army, reinforced by civilian militia, overwhelms the Americans by mass attack, inflicting heavy casualties.
- The Americans, stunned by their losses, abandon the conquest of Japan and accept peace terms that would exclude Allied occupation of Japan and the dissolution of the Japanese military.